Aluminium

It seems that the aluminium market has now found a balance in the current conflicts. The news value is reduced. This, combined with a slight slowdown in the southern European markets in particular, means a slight drop in the aluminium price at the moment. However, there is no expectation that prices will fall back to previous levels, as the shortage of raw materials will continue to be a challenge in the coming period.

Copper

Prices remain at a high level and are influenced by developments in the stock markets. At the same time, investors' risk appetite has increased again, which supports demand.

The market is driven by electrification and energy transition, which are increasing the need for copper. China plays a central role, where increased investments in the electricity grid have strengthened demand and significantly reduced inventories. This helps to keep prices up despite economic headwinds.

On the supply side, there are still constraints. One of the world's largest mines is only producing at half capacity after an accident, and full recovery has been postponed until 2028. In addition, transport problems may affect supply.

The market is also affected by an unbalanced inventory distribution, with the US holding a large share of global inventories. At the same time, the possible introduction of US import tariffs creates uncertainty, as it could affect both price levels and global trade flows.

Freight Situation

Sea freight

Rising freight rates and turbulence in the sea freight market.

The SCFI index is currently on a clear upward trajectory, and carriers continue to report increasing rates throughout June. Despite higher prices, we are also seeing growing demand. This is largely driven by uncertainty in the market, where exporters in the Far East in particular are accelerating their shipments.

In the slightly longer term, the market is expected to stabilise and potentially decline again, likely around late July or early August (during the summer period).

The latest developments are heavily influenced by the situation and unrest in the Middle East, which has created new challenges for ocean freight from the Far East to Europe. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to increased costs, especially through higher fuel surcharges, now potentially easing up over the next weeks to come.

At the same time, carriers have introduced additional surcharges such as fuel surcharges, PSS, and other fees to cover rising risks and costs. Furthermore, carriers are now adjusting capacity by reducing available space, which is putting additional upward pressure on rates.

Road

The recent unrest in the Middle East and the resulting high oil prices are not only affecting sea freight - road transport is also impacted. Trucking costs have risen significantly, contributing to higher freight rates overall.

In the Netherlands, a road tax will be introduced on 01.07.2026.

The summer period is approaching, which may lead to longer transit times due to driving bans in several parts of Europe. This will particularly affect goods moving through Germany, where Saturday driving restrictions will apply.

Stainless Scrap

In our latest version of Market Trends, we continued to forecast rising prices for stainless steel scrap, which has proven to be correct. From January through June 2026, the price of stainless-steel scrap increased by approximately 30%, driven in part by a shift in purchasing behavior, with buyers moving their sourcing from Asia to Europe, since imports into Europe now carry a carbon-cost exposure.

This has increased demand for European stainless-steel production and, in turn, demand for stainless scrap as an important raw material. European mills experienced stronger order intake and longer lead times during Q1 and Q2 2026. As mill activity improved, their need for stainless scrap increased, which supported higher scrap prices. Stainless scrap values are closely linked to the contained alloy elements. During this period Nickel rose significantly versus late 2025 and Molybdenum also increased strongly.

After a long weak period, the European stainless market became more balanced in early 2026: reduced mill capacities, longer lead times, improving industrial activity and firmer raw material sentiment.

This changed sentiment from defensive buying to a more active purchasing environment, which helped push scrap prices upward.

Safeguards

Since our last Market Trends, the discussion around the new EU safeguard regime has further intensified as market participants prepare for its implementation from 1 July 2026.

The current proposals indicate a significantly stricter framework compared to the existing system. Key elements include reduced tariff-free quota volumes, a substantial increase in out-of-quota duties (from 25% to 50%) and the introduction of stricter origin requirements, particularly through the “Melt & Pour” rule.

At the same time, a clearer segmentation of supply sources is emerging. Imports from countries with Free Trade Agreements (FTA) with the EU are expected to remain relatively more stable, while volumes from non‑FTA countries will face significantly higher regulatory and cost pressure. This is likely to trigger a structural shift in sourcing strategies and trade flows.

However, this shift also comes with new risks. A potential reallocation of volumes towards FTA countries may result in tighter availability, quota pressure and price increases in these regions, while non‑FTA sources become less reliable due to higher duty exposure and limited quota access.

In practice, this is already influencing market behavior. Many importers are delaying purchasing decisions or reducing exposure, while European mills benefit from improving order intake and increasing lead times.

Overall, the upcoming safeguard regime will not only reduce the competitiveness of imports but also increase the complexity and risk within global sourcing structures.

Product news

Seamless Tubes

The seamless tubes market continues to show a differentiated development compared to other stainless steel product groups.

While prices for many products have increased in recent months, seamless tube prices have remained relatively stable. This is mainly due to ongoing volume pressure at mills in key export countries, which are currently facing weak order intake and high competition. As a result, producers are struggling to pass on rising raw material and production costs to the market.

At the same time, the regulatory environment is becoming increasingly relevant for this product segment. In particular, CBAM introduces a higher level of uncertainty compared to other product groups. Seamless tube producers are often dependent on emissions data provided by their upstream material suppliers, which adds an additional layer of complexity and risk. This dependency becomes critical in cases where verified, product-specific emissions data is not fully available. As a result, importers may be forced to rely on default values, potentially leading to higher effective carbon costs.

In combination with the upcoming safeguard regime, this creates a challenging environment: While short-term pricing remains under pressure, regulatory risks and compliance requirements are increasing significantly, making supplier selection and transparency a key success factor.

Welded Tubes

The European market for welded tubes has continued to show a firm trend in recent weeks, with prices moving gradually upwards. European mills have implemented price increases supported by stable order books, longer lead times and higher raw material costs. While overall demand remains moderate, the availability of competitively priced imports has become more limited, allowing local producers to maintain stronger pricing levels.

We expect further moderate increases cannot be ruled out if raw material costs remain elevated. 

Fittings & Flanges

Prices for fittings and flanges have also increased compared with previous months. Higher production costs, firmer offer levels from Asian suppliers and rising freight costs have contributed to the upward movement. Although global demand is still mixed and does not indicate a strong market recovery, suppliers have shown greater discipline in maintaining higher price levels.

At present, the market is characterised by cautious demand but increasing prices. The expectation for the coming weeks is therefore one of relative stability with a slightly upward tendency.

Bars

The market for stainless steel long products (bars) in Europe, has shown a gradual recovery in the period from January to June 2026 following a very challenging year in 2025. At the start of 2026, the industry was still dealing with the aftermath of weak demand, low production volumes, and compressed margins. However, as the year progressed, there were clear signs of stabilization, with market sentiment improving slightly, especially in Europe. This improvement has not been driven by a strong rebound in demand, but rather by structural changes on the supply side and increasing cost pressures.

Demand conditions during the first half of 2026 have remained relatively soft. Key end-use sectors such as construction, automotive, and mechanical engineering have not yet returned to normal activity levels, which has limited the overall consumption of stainless-steel bars. Although there are some positive signals, including infrastructure investments and energy-related projects, these have not been strong enough to fully offset the weakness in traditional industrial demand. As a result, many buyers have continued to take a cautious approach to procurement, often purchasing only for short-term needs rather than building inventories.

In contrast to the weak demand environment, the supply side has undergone more significant changes, particularly in Europe. The introduction of CBAM at the beginning of 2026 has had a noticeable impact on the market by increasing the cost of imported stainless steel products. At the same time, expectations of stricter “safeguard” measures later in the year have further reduced the attractiveness of imports from Asian suppliers. These developments have led to a shift in sourcing behavior, with more buyers turning toward European mills.

European producers, however, cannot respond immediately to this increase in European demand. After several years of reduced capacity utilization, mills require time to ramp up production, which has resulted in longer delivery times and, in some cases, limited availability of certain bar products. This combination of reduced imports and constrained domestic supply has effectively tightened the market, creating a different dynamic compared to previous years where oversupply and import pressure dominated.

Price development in the first half of 2026 reflects these structural changes. Stainless steel prices, including those for long products, have risen. This trend is primarily driven by higher production costs and regulatory factors rather than increased consumption. Rising costs for key raw materials such as nickel, chromium, and scrap have supported higher alloy surcharges and lifted the overall price level. At the same time, the reduced flow of lower-priced imports has strengthened the pricing power of European producers.

Overall, the market for stainless steel bars in the first half of 2026 can be characterized as being in a transition phase. The industry is moving away from a period defined by oversupply and weak prices toward a more balanced environment where supply constraints and cost pressures play a larger role. However, this transition is not yet complete, and the market remains fragile. The key feature of the current situation is that price increases are being driven more by supply-side factors and regulatory changes than by a genuine recovery in demand.

Sheets & plates

The European stainless steel flat products market, has experienced a steady price increase since the beginning of 2026, primarily driven by higher raw material costs and reduced Asian imports due to uncertainty around the implementation of new EU tariff‑rate quotas from July and the ongoing impact of CBAM, both of which are delaying buying decisions.

Cold rolled coil and sheet prices have risen significantly through the first quarter and into the second quarter, reaching their highest levels since mid-2024.

This upward movement has been largely cost-driven rather than demand-driven. In particular, higher prices for stainless steel scrap, nickel and especially molybdenum have pushed prices upwards, with the strongest impact seen in 316 grades. At the same time, energy costs and broader inflationary pressures linked to geopolitical tensions have further supported higher transaction prices.

Despite these rising prices, underlying demand conditions in Europe have weakened since April and May. The usual seasonal slowdown has started earlier than normal, reinforced by public holidays and continued geopolitical uncertainty, which has made buyers more cautious.

Looking ahead to Q3 2026, the overall market outlook in Europe is cautious. Demand is expected to weaken during the summer holiday period, and market sentiment has become increasingly pessimistic.

In terms of pricing, however, the market is likely to remain supported in the short term by still‑elevated alloy costs.

Overall, the European flat products market is entering Q3 2026 in a situation where prices remain relatively high due to cost support, but momentum seems to be slowly fading. Weak demand and seasonal factors are expected to lead to a period of price stabilization.